北京大学肿瘤医院遗传学研究室
Laboratory of Genetics, Peking University Cancer Hospital
Prognostic tool for predicting the overall survival after esophagectomy
食管癌切除术后生存预测工具
This tool is used to estimate postoperative survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma receiving esophagectomy as the initial treatment, and to provide information regarding benefits of different types of postoperative therapies.
该工具用于评估以食管切除术为初始治疗的食管鳞癌患者的术后生存概率，并评估不同类型的术后治疗的潜在益处。
Disclaimer
Before using this tool, please read this statement carefully and thoroughly. By
using this tool, you are indicating your assent to the entire content of this statement.
This tool aims to provide prognostic prediction for patients with esophageal squamous
cell carcinoma (ESCC) after surgery. All estimates provided by this tool are calculated
based on the statistical probability calculation of a specific population of patients
with ESCC in China, and are not intended to be used as medical advice from health
professionals or as legal medical document. You are advised to use this risk assessment
tool and related feedback as additional information source for decisions regarding
treatment, rehabilitation, use of medical products or any other related medical
services. You should seek and follow advice from professional physicians or other
qualified health professionals. Regardless of your purpose in using our website,
the information in this website is not intended to a substitute for your own medical
judgment or reliable advice. We hereby solemnly declare that we take no responsibility
or obligation resulting from the reliance on the materials on this website by any
user of this website or anyone who was informed of the content of this website.
You agree that we will not be responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused
by your use of and/or reliance on the content or information on this website, and
shall not assume any responsibility for the accuracy, timeliness and applicability
of the content and other materials on this website.
免责声明
在使用本工具之前，请您务必仔细阅读并透彻理解本声明。如果您使用本工具，您的使用行为视为对本声明全部内容的认可。
本工具旨在为食管鳞癌术后患者提供预后预测服务。本工具提供的所有预测结果均基于中国特定食管鳞癌患者人群的统计概率计算获得，
不作为专业医疗建议或具备法律效力的医疗文书。您同意仅将本风险评估结果与相关反馈内容作为治疗、康复、使用医疗产品或其他任何相关医疗服务的辅助性建议。 您应寻求专业医师及其他具备相应资质的专业人士意见并遵照医嘱执行。
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参考文献：Yang W, Liu F, Xu R, Yang W, He Y, Liu Z, Zhou F, Heng F, Hou B, Zhang L, Chen L, Zhang F, Cai F, Xu H, Lin M, Liu M, Pan Y, Liu Y, Hu Z, Chen H, He Z, Ke Y. Is adjuvant therapy a better option for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients treated with esophagectomy? A prognosis prediction model based on multicenter real-world data. Ann Surg. 2021;Publish Ahead of Print. https://dx.doi.org/10.1097/SLA.0000000000004958.
Note: When calculating the percentiles, project the total score of the user to the
cumulative percentile in the total scores of all participants (sample size = 5944)
sorted in ascending order. Three risk groups were classified according to the tertiles
of total score in the development (Anyang) set (sample size = 4129). The survival
probabilities corresponding to the total score are calculated using "nomogramEx"
package in R software. If the survival probability result is shown as 0, it only
means that based on the statistical estimation of the sample in this model, the
patient's predicted survival probability is infinitely close to 0, but not that
the real survival rates in all such cases are 0.
备注：计算百分位数时，先将全部研究对象（样本量为5944）总分从低到高排序，然后将测试者总分（total score）对应到该排序数列的累积百分位上。根据建模集人群（样本量为4129）中总分的三分位数，将研究对象划分为不同的风险组。使用R语言的nomogramEx包计算总分对应的生存概率。如果生存概率计算结果显示为"0"，仅意味着基于本模型的研究样本的统计估计，患者生存概率无限趋近于0，并不代表真实世界中所有这类患者的生存概率都为"0"。
| Distribution of total score in all participants | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 全部研究对象得分分布图 |
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 32 |
| Total score (总得分) |
|
Treatment (治疗方案) |
Sugery only (单纯手术) |
Sugery + radiotherapy (手术及术后放疗) |
||
|
Sugery + chemotherapy (手术及术后化疗) |
Sugery + chemoradiotherapy (手术及术后放化疗) |
Note: This figure was plotted based on the distribution of the total scores of all
participants in this analysis (sample size = 5944).
备注：总得分分布图根据分析所用的全部研究对象（样本量为5944）绘制。
Note: The survival curves of the different risk groups are drawn using time-to-event
data of all participants (sample size = 5944). The cutoff values for classifying
the risk group are based on the tertiles of total scores in the development set
(sample size = 4129).
备注：使用全部研究对象（样本量为5944）描绘不同风险组的生存曲线。风险组分类的截断值是根据建模集（样本量为4129）总分的三分位数来划分。